Best Supporting Actress Analysis
In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):
British Film Awards (BFA) = 5/4
BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 4/0
GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 9/5
KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 8/3
LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 7/2
NBR - National Board of Review; = 4/0
NSFC - National Society of Film Critics; = 4/2
NYF - New York Film Critics; = 6/3
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Awards; = 4*
Notes: Double yeuuuch.
GG missed in 1983, 85, 86, 88, 89, 92, 93, 96, 98, 2000, 2002
SAG (since 1994) missed in: 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001.
And, in 1996, SAG & GG agreed, incorrectly, for Lauren Bacall over Juliette Binoche.
I'm going to go again with the idea that whenever GG & SAG agree, that will mean a lot, even with the difficult categories of the supporting awards.
This year's statistics are:
BSFC, CFC, FFC, GS, NBR, NSFC, PFC, SanF, VFC - Patricia Clarkson
- Pieces of April
BSFC, FFC, KCFC, NBR, NSFC - Patricia Clarkson - The Station Agent
NYOC - Scarlett Johanson - Lost in Translation
IND, LAF, NYF, OFC - Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog
BFA, BFC, DFW, GG, SAG, SDFC, SFC - Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain
Now, the nominees are:
Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River
Holly Hunter for Thirteen
Renée Zellweger for Cold Mountain
Note, that for two nominees (Harden & Hunter) no-one else has given them anything. Note, also, that Clarkson has been given awards by agencies recognizing that she has done very good work in two films this year. You may remember her from such films as the Green Mile (the warden's wife) and the Untouchables (Ness' wife; notice a theme here).
Clarkson has done very good work in the past few years; that means a lot to the academy; and has never been nominated before.
Hunter has also done extraordinary work; has been nominated three times (twice in the same year) and has won once:
1987 BEST ACTRESS - Broadcast News
1993 BEST ACTRESS - The Piano (won)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - The Firm
But considering that Renee has been nominated for the past few years:
2001 BEST ACTRESS - Bridget Jones's Diary
2002 BEST ACTRESS - Chicago
And was shut out from last year's big "Chicago" win, AND she has both SAG and GG behind her, it will go to her.
In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):
British Film Awards (BFA) = 5/4
BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 4/0
GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 9/5
KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 8/3
LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 7/2
NBR - National Board of Review; = 4/0
NSFC - National Society of Film Critics; = 4/2
NYF - New York Film Critics; = 6/3
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Awards; = 4*
Notes: Double yeuuuch.
GG missed in 1983, 85, 86, 88, 89, 92, 93, 96, 98, 2000, 2002
SAG (since 1994) missed in: 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001.
And, in 1996, SAG & GG agreed, incorrectly, for Lauren Bacall over Juliette Binoche.
I'm going to go again with the idea that whenever GG & SAG agree, that will mean a lot, even with the difficult categories of the supporting awards.
This year's statistics are:
BSFC, CFC, FFC, GS, NBR, NSFC, PFC, SanF, VFC - Patricia Clarkson
- Pieces of April
BSFC, FFC, KCFC, NBR, NSFC - Patricia Clarkson - The Station Agent
NYOC - Scarlett Johanson - Lost in Translation
IND, LAF, NYF, OFC - Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog
BFA, BFC, DFW, GG, SAG, SDFC, SFC - Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain
Now, the nominees are:
Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River
Holly Hunter for Thirteen
Renée Zellweger for Cold Mountain
Note, that for two nominees (Harden & Hunter) no-one else has given them anything. Note, also, that Clarkson has been given awards by agencies recognizing that she has done very good work in two films this year. You may remember her from such films as the Green Mile (the warden's wife) and the Untouchables (Ness' wife; notice a theme here).
Clarkson has done very good work in the past few years; that means a lot to the academy; and has never been nominated before.
Hunter has also done extraordinary work; has been nominated three times (twice in the same year) and has won once:
1987 BEST ACTRESS - Broadcast News
1993 BEST ACTRESS - The Piano (won)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - The Firm
But considering that Renee has been nominated for the past few years:
2001 BEST ACTRESS - Bridget Jones's Diary
2002 BEST ACTRESS - Chicago
And was shut out from last year's big "Chicago" win, AND she has both SAG and GG behind her, it will go to her.
This entry was posted
on Sunday, February 29, 2004 at 2/29/2004 03:09:00 PM.
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