Vote Predicting - Broken Post
I originally tried to post this on October 28th, but the Blogger messed me up. Honest.
If I try to predict the Oscars, why not the Election of the Century. I'll take another time to add to the hysteria of the critical nature of this election (maybe not, people already feel it). The heilige Electoral-Vote.com has been invaluable and you can use that data to make your own Sundae (Tuesdae?) at the New York Times site - click on "Presidential Calculator."
My prediction is based on the idea that any state which is polling at less than 50% (and that was for Oct 28, it's even easier to see now) for Bush is going to go to Kerry.
That means:
Bush: ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AZ, UT, AK (51), LA, IN, KY, TN, AL, GA, SC, NC (Bush 53), VA (Bush 51), WV (Bush 51), MS (Bush 51)
Kerry: MO (Bush has 49), ME, NH (B=47), NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, NH, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA (B=46), OH (B=46), FL (B=47), MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, HI, WA, OR, CA, and NV (Bush is 50), CO (Bush 48), NM (Bush 49)
That means Bush 202, Kerry 336
And depending on how the get out the vote efforts work (and the GOP dirty tricks), the historical trend of incumbents losing 2-3 points on election night may mean that Bush could lose VA, WV, MS, and even NC making a plausible total of 163 to 375.
If my numbers don't match up to the media - who say incessently that it's a tight race - it's because they are harlots who feign authenticity to sell their product: a horse race is more compelling than a rout.
If this is an honest election, Bush will be back home crying to mommy (and shredding every piece of paper he can find) before long.
If I try to predict the Oscars, why not the Election of the Century. I'll take another time to add to the hysteria of the critical nature of this election (maybe not, people already feel it). The heilige Electoral-Vote.com has been invaluable and you can use that data to make your own Sundae (Tuesdae?) at the New York Times site - click on "Presidential Calculator."
My prediction is based on the idea that any state which is polling at less than 50% (and that was for Oct 28, it's even easier to see now) for Bush is going to go to Kerry.
That means:
Bush: ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AZ, UT, AK (51), LA, IN, KY, TN, AL, GA, SC, NC (Bush 53), VA (Bush 51), WV (Bush 51), MS (Bush 51)
Kerry: MO (Bush has 49), ME, NH (B=47), NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, NH, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA (B=46), OH (B=46), FL (B=47), MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, HI, WA, OR, CA, and NV (Bush is 50), CO (Bush 48), NM (Bush 49)
That means Bush 202, Kerry 336
And depending on how the get out the vote efforts work (and the GOP dirty tricks), the historical trend of incumbents losing 2-3 points on election night may mean that Bush could lose VA, WV, MS, and even NC making a plausible total of 163 to 375.
If my numbers don't match up to the media - who say incessently that it's a tight race - it's because they are harlots who feign authenticity to sell their product: a horse race is more compelling than a rout.
If this is an honest election, Bush will be back home crying to mommy (and shredding every piece of paper he can find) before long.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, November 02, 2004 at 11/02/2004 12:15:00 AM.
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